Who Controls Venezuela’s Future and Why It Matters to the U.S
Can Venezuela reclaim a future where its citizens can prosper once again?
Throughout the 20th century, Venezuela thrived on its vast oil reserves, becoming one of Latin America’s richest nations. But beginning in the 1970s, political upheaval, corruption, and authoritarian rule, most notably under Chávez and Maduro, led to the economic collapse of a once-proud country.
Today, there may be renewed hope, with the right leadership from the United States and support from the international community.
AMERICA’S ROLE IN VENEZUELA - GOOD OR BAD?
There are many factors that must be considered before determining the answer to that question. Because of Venezuela’s huge natural resources, such as the largest proven oil reserves in the world (300 billion barrels, worth nearly $17 Trillion), and significant amounts of other resources such as gold, natural gas and iron ore, this leaves them open to considerable geopolitical pursuits from countries globally. Its location in the Western Hemisphere is also a huge factor that is considered by those countries to maintain a presence and a relationship. A socialistic/communistic government has affected in numerous ways how the people of Venezuela have fled the country (between 8 to 9 million since Chavez took power in the late 90’s and Maduro assumed power after Chavez died). There were other considerations such as the economic and harsh conditions, including inflation (a staggering 1.7 million percent inflation rate), rationing of food and the tens of thousands of people that have been killed or are in prison who oppose the Maduro regime.
DID THE US/TRUMP INVADE VENEZUELA FOR OIL?
Let’s address the elephant in the room. Most opposition to the capturing of Maduro and his wife, and how it was executed, believe that it was solely for oil and natural gas and that drug trafficking and Cartel involvement, terror and corruption did not play much of a role. In truth, it probably was about the oil, but not in the way it has been presented by the media or people who have Trump Derangement Syndrome or have no clue of what they talk about except within a tiny bubble they live in and do not know anything about geopolitical strategies.
For arguments sake, let’s say that it is true. The first question would be why do we feel that we have the right to do exactly that (keep in mind that the U.S. has more than 83 million barrels of oil reserves and doesn’t need Venezuela’s reserves). One reason may be that when oil companies, primarily from the United States, around 1910 through the mid 1970’s, such as Shell Oil, Standard Oil, which eventually became Exxon and Gulf Oil financed the infrastructure to extract the oil. The profits from that production, in large part, were distributed to those very companies who provided the initial investment. This was the agreement. However, toward the mid 70’s, Venezuela started to nationalize a larger share of the revenues that were coming in from the distributions worldwide.
The biggest shift or push came in the late 90’s as Chavez came to power. At that time, they basically took over the oil production and its distribution, almost completely eliminating those original companies and their investments. Those very oil companies, did sue Venezuela, and most of the international arbitration lawsuits were awarded to those companies in the billions. Still today, only a fraction of those awards were ever recovered.
CUBA/RUSSIA’S INFLUENCE
After the death of Hugo Chavez in 2013, at which time Maduro rose to power, other alliances became more prevalent. The relationship with Cuba added value to Maduro’s regime. They offered shipping routes with ports in Cuba receiving the oil and with the protection of Russia, the oil was distributed throughout the world. In return, Cuba was able to maintain its communist government and economically survive even though the people of Cuba pay a heavy price. Russia also benefits as Cuba remains under their communist rule.
CHINA’S PRESENCE/INFLUENCE
China has also became an influential factor in the purchase of Venezuelan oil and natural gas. China, at one point, was purchasing approximately 80% of Venezuela’s crude, almost all of Iran’s oil and a massive share of Russian exports. China, like Cuba/Russia was able to avoid sanctions. This was a work around of the sanctions imposed by primarily the United States due to the atrocities of the communist dictators, Chavez/Maduro. China, until a few weeks ago, still remains as a partner in infrastructure, building its presence and influence on Venezuela.
IRAN
Iran, in the last 10 to 15 years, has also been an influencer. Through tankers, the transfer of oil to other tankers in the middle of the Atlantic ocean, delivered to Iran for refining, so they could sell oil to China, along with it’s building of cargo ships for oil transfer, along with secret routes and cargo ships jamming signals and turning off transponders so that it could not be tracked, have been work arounds for Iranian/Venezuelan sanctions.WHAT IS THE BENEFIT OF HAVING THE OIL?
President Trump’s cabinet and geopolitical advisors, along with the military, understood something that many leaders and others ignore. Power doesn’t come from taking the oil or owning it. Power comes from controlling who gets the crude.
The biggest concerns would be limiting China’s growing influence in the Western Hemisphere. China cannot gain or control the leverage. As of a few weeks ago, China suddenly lost 70% of its non-US regulated oil supply. This limits the fuel for a Taiwan war. Limits energy for AI dominance. No BRIC currency replacing the dollar. This is all with no shots fired. No declaration of war. Just leverage. As Marco Rubio put it “we do not need Venezuela oil, but we will not allow this hemisphere’s energy to be controlled by America’s adversaries”( this will also affect the destabilization of Cuba and the Communist rule backed by Russia. There won't be any revenues to prop up the government). Combining many quotes and comments on social platforms I found the following comments to be spot on. This is not chaos. This is not luck. This is Trump playing the long game. He is out thinking rivals, reshaping alliances and winning without asking permission. This is not recklessness, this is strategy.
A COMMONSENSE QUESTION
As it concerns oil, natural resources, including natural gas, here is the question. Who do you choose to take the oil?
Cuba/Russia - communist governments?
China - communist government?
Iran - dictatorship/world’s largest terrorist organization?
Or leave it to Maduro, a communist dictator?
All of these choices would lead to their presence in the Western Hemisphere.
However, there is the alternative.
The United States - a constitutional republic/representative government that will fairly provide stability to the Venezuelan people who have suffered for more than 30 years. Ensure free democratic elections and their choice on who and how their government is ran. Enrich all Venezuelan people in an equal sharing of the revenues of its natural resources with an ultimate goal of providing a wonderful opportunity for those who have fled to return to the very country they were born and loved.
